{"id":1214,"date":"2022-10-08T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-08T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/?p=1214"},"modified":"2024-10-24T17:58:17","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T00:58:17","slug":"winter-is-coming-episode-6-bill-perkins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartermarkets.media\/winter-is-coming-episode-6-bill-perkins\/","title":{"rendered":"Bill Perkins, Partner &#038; Head Trader, Skylar Capital"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1214\" class=\"elementor elementor-1214\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3df585e0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3df585e0\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-32b4a41a\" data-id=\"32b4a41a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1ba47c1e elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"1ba47c1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<iframe title=\"Winter is Coming Episode 6 | Bill Perkins, Partner & Head Trader, Skylar Capital\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=g2irm-12e1a47-pb&from=pb6admin&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Arial&skin=1&font-color=auto&logo_link=none&btn-skin=c73a3a\"><\/iframe>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7fb1dad9 episode-info elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7fb1dad9\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-451e066c\" data-id=\"451e066c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ae19d37 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6ae19d37\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>This week, we welcome Bill Perkins into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. Bill is the Founder, Managing Partner, and Head Trader for Skylar Capital. SmarterMarkets\u2122 host David Greely sits down with Bill to discuss his trader\u2019s perspective on the natural gas, power, and carbon markets in Europe.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbc7811 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbc7811\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><a href=\"http:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/SM90_BillPerkins_TranscriptFinal_20221010.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download full transcript \u2192<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1257a898 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"1257a898\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3d273a68 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3d273a68\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"bb-theme-elementor-wrap bb-elementor-custom-color\">\t\t\t\t<p>Hosted By<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7bbbe227 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7bbbe227\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDavid Greely\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-348576cb episode-qa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"348576cb\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5bb01a3c\" data-id=\"5bb01a3c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-5157bb57 episode-qa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5157bb57\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-131d8c38\" data-id=\"131d8c38\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-278ffd0b elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"278ffd0b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4fbfa834 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4fbfa834\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Episode Q&A<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-58a0cf2a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"58a0cf2a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The following Q&amp;A is created using slightly edited excerpts from the episode transcript, optimized for readability. <a href=\"http:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/SM83_DavidGornall_TranscriptFinal_20220907.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download full transcript<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75846b5f elementor-widget elementor-widget-accordion\" data-id=\"75846b5f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1971\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1971\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG:  What do you see as the big trading opportunity in European energy right now?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1971\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1971\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Things are changing every day in Europe right now, but I generally see that we have a situation where the amount of storage is not enough based on the demanding amount of gas they use. So you have a lot of scenarios where you can either get to containment, and prices fall apart, but still not have enough gas to get you through the winter. We used to have that domestically before storage grew maybe 15 or 20 years ago. Then you have all these other factors with the energy transition: Russia cut off the gas because of war, ship LNG, and policymakers getting involved with subsidizing demand via price caps, nuclear issues, and weather issues. There are just a lot of things that digest in the short-term and long-term. Long term, it\u2019s going to take a while for this market to become less volatile. So I see lots of opportunities here just being the insurance agent. That\u2019s what traders are; we ensure against prices going up, and we ensure against prices going down based on how we see the world.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1972\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1972\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG:  How do you assess the inventory situation in Europe right now, given what they\u2019re likely to face this winter?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1972\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1972\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Just like any other winter, they can fill to the brim, and they can still run out of gas &#8211; this is what normal situations would look like. But here we have the Russians flowing 1\/6 of what they normally flow that\u2019s being met by LNG; high prices cure high prices, but will Russia cut off more gas flowing through Ukraine? Has demand destruction been significant to get us to the winter, or will winter be very warm, and then we\u2019re being flooded with gas? Or will it be cold, and we run out of gas? There are a lot of scenarios that keep playing out. Right now, we\u2019re kind of in a situation where high prices cure high prices, the demand destruction is significant, and the rest of the world is saying we don\u2019t want the LNG at this price, at least a significant portion of it.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> So we have to reckon the amount of LNG flowing to Northwest Europe and Western Europe, which looks crazy when you look at it on a map, but winter is coming, and the infrastructure isn\u2019t such that flowing LNG ships can necessarily place flowing gas in a cold weather scenario. So you have a shutoff through Ukraine, and it\u2019s priced high; you are kind of bearish, but maybe the expected value could be fair or high. People are trying to figure this out, and when you start having policymakers get involved, you begin to lose a free market. I\u2019m very good at trading markets, but I am not good at trading Putin; I\u2019m not a good trader trading Putin. These various schemes that they have induce demand, these price caps.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Are you subsidizing demand when you\u2019re running out of gas? This makes no sense. I often say had they made the price a complete pass through, the crisis would be over in a day. And then some retort about what happens to the people who can\u2019t afford it? I say, here\u2019s what you do instead of just blindly paying the bill, give everybody the amount that would be an increase and call it a pass through. Are they going to spend the extra thousand dollars on energy or will they conserve and spend it on the nightclub? I think many people go to the nightclub rather than spending on a high electricity bill. They\u2019re not putting forth schemes to conserve or produce demand destruction; they&#8217;re just absolutely subsidizing demand, which is crazy.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1973\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1973\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: You say it\u2019s the best trading opportunity in 20 years. When you look at what\u2019s happening in Europe, are there similarities or things that remind you of  this particular time in the US? You spent much of your early trading career with John Arnold at Centaurus, and you traded very profitably through a number of pretty turbulent periods in the US natural gas market.<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1973\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1973\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> No invasions, but you had growing demand and a lack of infrastructure, and no matter what you thought about the energy transition, energy transitions aren\u2019t smooth; they\u2019re lumpy. Infrastructure doesn\u2019t come on perfectly and match demand. You have this storage situation where they\u2019re not building more; no matter how much you fill storage, you always have a risk of running out. In the early days, we were putting down all these gas-fired power plants and growing our demand sided equation and flows but not increasing the storage, which storage is your shock absorber. That\u2019s your shock absorber for volatility, and so I saw a landscape where we\u2019re going to have a lot of volatility depending on what was going on, what was the weather, what happened in global events.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Nobody wants to trade the boring, 3%, 6%, and 10% Vol product. We were trading the 80% vault product, and back then, I thought &#8211; 40 Vol is cheap, or 60 Vol is cheap, and now it\u2019s double. We have scenarios where things will be moving around significantly. Since there are not that many insurance agents in Europe, not that many people want to put their risk capital and be risk warehouse shops there, the premium or the edge we get paid is significant. When there are 30 insurance agents, the insurance margins are pretty thin. There are not that many of us that want to put our capital at risk in that market.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> The world went crazy with equities. It&#8217;s just you went to raise money looking for your discretionary long-short commodity trading, and they were like, do you trade equities? Are you long equities? Are you long equities? Can we buy the equities? That\u2019s all you heard. And you had this massive run-up from the fed printing, and I guess it was the right thing to do because they were printing money all the time, but that\u2019s changed. They could lose 50% of their portfolio and still want to be in equities before they jump into a commodity long short. And people are starting to pay attention to commodities, but we\u2019re always an afterthought.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1974\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1974\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: But commodities are too risky?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1974\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1974\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Yeah, they are too risky. It\u2019s a strange world, but I guess that\u2019s what\u2019s marketed the most to these risk allocators of the world, the pension funds, the family offices, et cetera.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1975\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1975\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: You\u2019ve got a very strong orientation in your trading style to looking at market fundamentals and then using options strategies to trade. With your London office, are you going to trade natural gas power in carbon?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1975\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1975\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> We hired Nathan Lorentz, he is from the LNG days, and he\u2019s opening up the office, and I\u2019ve already been trading small significant as a percentage of our portfolio, but we wanted somebody full-time with the time differential, so I\u2019m not up at 1:30 am trying to figure out what\u2019s going on. We\u2019ll be building out that risk book and the desk as time goes on. When I was in high school playing football, I remember the coach used to say: \u201cRun where they at! Perkins run where they at!\u201d You have to go where they are, and so many people are not in Europe, they\u2019re bailing out, they\u2019re blown up, they\u2019re not allocating risk, and that\u2019s where you want to be. That\u2019s where you want to be in that market. You want to put all your fundamental analysis, your programs, your research, and that data you\u2019re buying over there. I think you\u2019ll have a very positive expected value position in Europe.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1976\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1976\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: What\u2019s the range of outcomes that you think are reasonably in play in Europe in some of these markets? <\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1976\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1976\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> We clearly have the run-out of gas scenario. That\u2019s interesting because the EU isn\u2019t the United States because they\u2019re kind of loosely together. What I mean, do you have certain states go that would go about it like we\u2019re not going to ship the gas, no transit fees, or we\u2019re not shipping you power? The European Union has stressed itself, and those are secondary effects of scarcity. There is also a lack of proper planning, years of the policy of we don\u2019t drill, we don\u2019t put in infrastructure, we rely on Russia for our natural gas, and that\u2019s coming home to roots. You have scenarios where there has been demand destruction. They have sent out a signal; the market is set, here take the LNG, China says, we\u2019ll burn all the coal in the world &#8211; we don\u2019t care, take back your LNG. You could have a normal to mild winter, and just be flooded with gas in storage at the end of March. So I think both tails are on the table. They\u2019re completely on the table right now, and I would say that the no-shutting-off Ukrainian flows scenario with normal weather is actually bearish.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> You have a lot of demand destruction and flows. You\u2019ve sent a price signal, and high prices cure high prices. The problem in Europe is that the person using the gas and paying for the gas is often not the same person. In industry and commercial, you will pay for it if you use it. They\u2019re shutting down aluminum plants and smelters all the way through, and you just have enough demand destruction. There are 92 LNG ships on their way to Europe right now. There are 260 ships on the water. If they\u2019re all going to Western Europe, and it doesn\u2019t look like they want to stop. The storage is 90-91% full in Northwest Europe is what we defined as Northwest Europe. It\u2019s on its way!<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Once you get to 92%, you start to have injection issues, you can\u2019t stuff it at the ground at the same rate, and it starts to drop off precipitously, and so you\u2019re seeing that cash was trading \u20ac30 back on futures and you could see it in the front spread, which was a premium and now it\u2019s \u20ac15 back, call it five bucks back, I mean, it is \u20ac30 back printing today, and I see that scenario getting worse as long as the weather is normal. So you have everything on the table here, weather normal down the fairway, slightly bearish, but the volatility is so high, but as time evolves, that will start to get more solidified one way or the other.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1977\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1977\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: How do you get that type of scenario and probabilistic thinking across to people?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1977\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1977\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> That\u2019s an education question. It\u2019s really hard. I guess people respond to visual cues, so maybe show them the distribution of events, like what happens and some prices you estimate going on. That\u2019s how we look at it, so here\u2019s the world as we see it now. This is the S&amp;D; this is the demand destruction, run me the last 30 winners through scenarios and show me in how many outcomes we\u2019re running out of gas, et cetera. I think every trading shop does that this is no fancy witchcraft here, and then you could start saying that what if Russian flows of this run the weather scenario? What if Russian flows of that? What if LNG flows of this, and you run that deck, and then you have the distribution of what we see and what\u2019s possible, but you don\u2019t want to see a 30% chance of running out of gas; you never want to see that. You don\u2019t even want to see 10% or 5%, so that\u2019s what\u2019s pretty scary.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> And that\u2019s what you can see in somebody\u2019s cards you pull up or these scenarios. In my view, policymakers want to get elected, and look good, so they say they\u2019re the bears of good and sometimes false news or, often false news.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1978\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1978\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: You saw opportunities based on structural developments in the European market, but of course, now this year, the market\u2019s been dominated by this constantly shifting battlefield in Ukraine, Russia\u2019s use of energy as a weapon to create a second front in that war. So how are you managing risks around the fact that, as you said, you could be a great gas trader but not a great Putin trader. How do you manage risk in this environment? <\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1978\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1978\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Right now, we\u2019re much smaller than we normally would be, and that\u2019s just a function of all margins. I guess everybody\u2019s smaller, but the other thing is that we\u2019re waiting for very extreme, high favorite scenarios and tighter spreads. One of the things that recently we were looking at is that the winter might be crazy, and there\u2019s always going to be this like kind of war premium and Putin premium, but there\u2019s a significant chance that they can run out of storage. They can\u2019t inject as much gas as they\u2019d like to carry to prepare for the winter, although they\u2019re going to send that price signal out. A month ago, I knew we should be short the front and long the back, even though the market is backward dated, this market should be contango because there\u2019s this x probability of getting to a hundred percent full.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Things happen, and it changes to even 95%. So we started running numbers and saying, what\u2019s the odds that we get to 90% full by today? Right, what are the odds we get to 95% full? What are the odds we get to a 100%, October the 15th &#8211; 95% is a really dire situation with the amount of flows you\u2019re flowing right now. In a normal weather scenario, is there enough space, is there enough demand plus injection demand to handle that, and there were just too many scenarios that were like there\u2019s going to have to be some discount. Then there were all kinds of discussions about what could they do floating storage and then there was a debate on how do you store if all the slots are already taken to re-gas in the winter?<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> You don\u2019t have firm re-gas rights in the winter. So you can\u2019t just sit there with a $100 million cargo hoping to get a $20 spread. I don\u2019t know the exact answer, but I felt that enough of the distribution was that this thing backwardated or flat or even down a dollar is too tight, so we stay kind of tight within season. It\u2019s one of the ways you could kind of trade, trade around containment and running out. On a longer-term basis, that\u2019s tougher; the further you go out, your accuracy decreases with time. When you go from, let\u2019s say to the summer, we call that three trade lifetimes away because each season is a trader lifetime. After all, you can die in any season.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> We look in the range of the extremes what\u2019s going to happen, what\u2019s going to happen with demand destruction, are these distributions reasonable? Can we put on a trade that expresses that we can survive being very wrong because the name of the game is to stay in the game. The market will provide you with outsized returns. You just need to stay alive. Even if you get cut in half, you\u2019ll have a chance to really come back and thrive as long as you stay in the game.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Just don\u2019t get knocked out. You could get knocked down bloody, you can do a nine count, they can cut your eye, but make sure you\u2019re able to go back in a ring, and you\u2019ll eventually win.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1979\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"9\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1979\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: The other big risk is what European policymakers are going to do. Finally, those prices are flowing through; they\u2019re hitting the residential consumers, the small shops, and the bakeries are shutting down. You\u2019ve got a situation where policymakers feel a need to react and do something.  How do you manage risk in that environment, especially when they\u2019re likely to change the game's rules? Cap prices,  change of benchmarks, and saying we need something LNG-related, not TTF related, even though it still might be for pipeline consumers. When the rules of the game are potentially in play, how do you think about that?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1979\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"9\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1979\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> I generally view them to be who they are, and their primary concern is not solving the problem; it\u2019s solving the problem of how I stay in office? How do I look good? How do I get reelected? It\u2019s simple; energy is a pass-through. It is over. You will get 30% conservation out of the RC sector you\u2019re worried about. They\u2019re just not paying that much, and then, their concern is about people\u2019s high bills, that they\u2019re angry, and that they will not get reelected.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> So that\u2019s how they\u2019re always going to behave. So whether it\u2019s like we\u2019re going to move the index over here, it\u2019s never solving the demand problem. It\u2019s not solving the LNG problem, it is just hiding it. It may push it further down the road and make it worse further down the road, but it\u2019s never really actually solving the problem. Here\u2019s something where you can solve the problem and get reelected. Just say, let\u2019s say your bill was $100, and now it\u2019s going to be $1,000 and you don\u2019t want them to see the increase, so usually what they do is they just cap it, and they pay the bill for them, so you have no demand destruction.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Give them $900, but just tell them the price is the price. So the consumer, they\u2019re not paying anything extra, but they have $900 to make a choice, spend it on energy or conserve energy and go out and party. The price is a pass-through so there\u2019s no harm to the consumer, but then what\u2019s going to really happen is that these guys are not going to like take the $900 and ship it back to Juniper, which is now a government-controlled entity. They\u2019re going to take that, turn down their thermostats, winterize their houses, and you\u2019re going to see conservation that on a scale you\u2019ve never seen before in the RC amount, and you\u2019re going to solve the problem crisis over immediately.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> It\u2019d be empowering the consumer so that would be a policy shift where they are doing the socialist thing, but we\u2019re doing it the smart way. We\u2019re distributing it to the end user and letting them decide whether you\u2019re not; you\u2019re not subsidizing demand in that way. You\u2019re actually destroying demand in that way, but I haven\u2019t heard that once out of anybody, out of any policymaker. They\u2019re politicians; they\u2019re not economists, they\u2019re not commodity traders. They don\u2019t necessarily do that, and their focus is on getting reelected and staying in power.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> I\u2019m just proposing a way that they can actually be superheroes. It\u2019s just like I got $900 and I got to keep $200 more to spend. it\u2019s also an economic boost. It\u2019s a direct ejection.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-19710\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"10\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-19710\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: In addition to being a highly successful energy trader, you\u2019re also a highly successful poker player. Which were you first, were you a poker player first, the stakes might have been lower, or were you a trader first?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-19710\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"10\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-19710\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> Definitely a trader first. I wouldn\u2019t call myself highly successful. I\u2019ve been successful in tournaments, but cash games, I\u2019ve gotten beaten up early enough and I\u2019ve gone through the school of hard arts learning poker, but when I was like a clerk, I got introduced to playing no limit at holding them and all the traders, they have this natural inclination to risk, they like to gamble as entertainment. When you\u2019re always a house, sometimes you just want to get lucky, and socialize, and that\u2019s kind of the mentality of the floor, at least when I was coming up.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> There\u2019s certain people focus on the downside. They\u2019re just risk averse, and there are people who are always at missing the opportunity costs, and I think that\u2019s more traders. They\u2019re always like, what could have been, what could I make, they\u2019re not thinking about the downside. I think that\u2019s the bent of traders and so they like action.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-19711\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"11\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-19711\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG:  What do you take from poker playing that you apply to the trading? Or trading that you apply to how you think about playing poker? What do you take from each that makes you better at the other?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-19711\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"11\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-19711\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> I think what they both do in different ways is trading and poker let you know about yourself. You go in the market, it doesn\u2019t care, it doesn\u2019t have a vendetta against you. You play poker and they don\u2019t have any vendetta, they\u2019re going to come away. It\u2019s really how you react to every scenario. For instance, there\u2019s winning traders and and losing traders. it\u2019s really how much did study, how did they react to each scenario. So you really learn about yourself when trading . Yound the same is true with poker. When you find your leaks in your poker game, for example, you over bluff or you under bluff or you call too much or those things you find like there\u2019s something personal to you and your personality, the way you are maybe, in your childhood that wired you to be this way. You need to unwire and fix this thing in order to get better at poker.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> And I think the same is with trading. Like if you\u2019re the type of guy that gets upset when you lose and get irrational or you hold onto a trade too long, when you should be getting out because whatever you become attached or whatever; there\u2019s all kinds of trading leaks that are out there. I\u2019m not a trading psychologist, but I am very well aware of when things go right or I\u2019ve done things wrong, it\u2019s me; it\u2019s not the market. Bad things happen in the market. That\u2019s a guarantee. Like the trading guarantee something is going to go wrong. You\u2019re going to have this perfect thesis and boom, polar vortex in your face. It\u2019s bullish as all get out, and the market goes into infinity, and Freeport LNG blows up, and there\u2019s a ton of gas on the market, and boom, we vaporized 2-3$. These things are just going to happen. You don\u2019t know when they\u2019re gonna happen. That\u2019s the bargain of life. That\u2019s the bargain of trading and what really matters is how do you react to it.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-19712\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"12\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-19712\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: For other less experienced energy traders in the European market this year, what advice would you offer them for how to navigate what\u2019s going to be coming at them over the next 3, 6, 12 months?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-19712\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"12\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-19712\"><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> I guess one of the things I would say is that even when bad things that are happened when you\u2019re making your thesis that volatility that got you is also what\u2019s going to pay you. This is part of the game. Do not get too upset. If you\u2019re in that game that is what\u2019s going to pay you this volatility, this structure has set up. We\u2019re all complaining about margins are crazy, and I can\u2019t trade that much. This is because it is, don\u2019t worry. There is lot of juice and you\u2019re needed. Many people, look at the trading as useless. And I say, we\u2019re needed, we\u2019re risk warehousers. So you\u2019re needed, hang in there, keep your wits about you, and be rational. They should use the word &#8211; risk warehousers. We take the risk that you don\u2019t want.<\/p><p><strong>BP:<\/strong> We\u2019re really glorified insurance agents. If you\u2019re a fundamental trader, we\u2019re glorified insurance agents, producers come out and they\u2019re say, we want to sell a gajillion contract so we can make the widget and where do we buy this thing you; it looks bullish here. I\u2019m going to buy it, and then it\u2019s like we\u2019re worried about running out of gas. We go to buy it, and we\u2019re like you actually could run out of gas. Where would I sell this thing? That\u2019s what we do. We\u2019ve just glorified insurance agents.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week, we welcome Bill Perkins into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. Bill is the Founder, Managing Partner, and Head Trader for Skylar Capital. SmarterMarkets\u2122 host David&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1215,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,85],"tags":[241,45,96],"class_list":["post-1214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-episode","category-winter-is-coming","tag-commodities-trading","tag-lng","tag-trading","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bill Perkins, Partner &amp; Head Trader, Skylar Capital - SmarterMarkets\u2122<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/90bcd271cb73f3e83452f8918d4f9c11-1306886440.us-east-1.elb.amazonaws.com\/winter-is-coming-episode-6-bill-perkins\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bill Perkins, Partner &amp; Head Trader, Skylar Capital - SmarterMarkets\u2122\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This week, we welcome Bill Perkins into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. Bill is the Founder, Managing Partner, and Head Trader for Skylar Capital. 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