{"id":1122,"date":"2022-10-01T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-01T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/?p=1122"},"modified":"2022-10-21T17:04:52","modified_gmt":"2022-10-22T00:04:52","slug":"winter-is-coming-episode-5-tracy-shuchart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartermarkets.media\/winter-is-coming-episode-5-tracy-shuchart\/","title":{"rendered":"Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1122\" class=\"elementor elementor-1122\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-42fe236 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"42fe236\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5374582c\" data-id=\"5374582c\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1151cc81 elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"1151cc81\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<iframe title=\"Winter is Coming Episode 5 | Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=5yd76-12d7f8f-pb&from=pb6admin&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Arial&skin=1&font-color=auto&logo_link=none&btn-skin=c73a3a\"><\/iframe>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4f426e6f episode-info elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4f426e6f\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7f6c53\" data-id=\"7f6c53\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-32b628fc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"32b628fc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>We welcome Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter, into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. Host David Greely sits down with Tracy to discuss the broader impact of the European energy crisis across the commodities and financial markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44cfc607 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"44cfc607\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18ce285c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"18ce285c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"bb-theme-elementor-wrap bb-elementor-custom-color\">\t\t\t\t<p>Hosted By<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-347b1e0d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"347b1e0d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDavid Greely\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-5d94020 episode-qa elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5d94020\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-572e6584\" data-id=\"572e6584\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-39157969 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"39157969\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2cdca793 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2cdca793\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Episode Q&A<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3384a164 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3384a164\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The following Q&amp;A is created using slightly edited excerpts from the episode transcript, optimized for readability. <a href=\"http:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/SM89_TracyShuchart_TranscriptFinal_20221003.pdf\">Download full transcript<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-58f17a81 elementor-widget elementor-widget-accordion\" data-id=\"58f17a81\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1491\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1491\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: All commodity markets are connected, and the ripples from what\u2019s now happening in European energy markets are likely soon be felt across the broader commodity and financial markets. How other commodities are currently being affected by what\u2019s happening in Europe?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1491\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1491\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> We were singing secondary and tertiary effects across the entire commodity sector. Last year before the Ukraine invasion even, we saw energy prices already spiking in Europe, and people kind of forget that this started well before the Ukraine invasion. Last September, we saw spiking energy prices in the UK first, which threatened small meat firms. By October, natural gas prices got so high that started affecting fertilizer companies that were intern forced to curb production, which then caused problems in the meat packing industry because they rely on the CO2 from the fertilizer companies. And then, if we move to last fall in the EU, we saw the fertilizer industry being hit there too. We also saw iron, copper, nickel, aluminum, zinc smelters, and stainless steel mills forced to either shutter entirely or curb production because those metals are very energy intensive.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> We saw aluminum probably the hardest hit throughout the year, and Europe produces about 11% of global production. So since the fourth quarter of 2021, eight European countries have seen aluminum closures. We\u2019ve had five aluminum plants in France, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Germany leading to reduced production. While we\u2019ve had three in Spain, Netherlands, and Montenegro shut entirely, 50% of European aluminum smelting capacity is currently offline. So obviously, that\u2019s going to lead ultimately to higher aluminum prices, higher metal prices all around because we\u2019re facing kind of these structural supply deficits, and moving forward, we know that these countries are going to pull back on their green plants. So if we look at things like EVs that require massive amounts of aluminum, 250 kilograms per vehicle on average, solar panels, the new generation solar panels require twice the amount of aluminum that the older generation did, and obviously, turbines also require a ton of metal, ton of aluminum, a ton of steel and so this is going just to make all of these products more expensive and if metals are more expensive, manufacturing is more expensive, products more expensive. We\u2019re going to see ripple effects across all of these sectors.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1492\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1492\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: The short and long-term impacts of this on the energy transition is we need the metals like aluminum to make the solar panels and make the things we need for the energy transition, but we also need a lot of energy to make those metals. As someone managing money, how do you think about that timing in terms of managing risk and trading profitably when there are things we can foresee might be the next thing to happen?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1492\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1492\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> It always takes a lot longer for things to play out than you initially think they do. Especially when you\u2019re looking at big macro ideas, they take a long time, and our three major themes have been energy, metals, and agriculture. If you start with the energy sector, you know that the energy is pretty much at the heart of everything. Obviously, that started with the energy sector after the bottom fell out of the market in 2020, oil went negative, and the whole world shut down, but even before that happened, we were already seeing some supply problems in the energy sector that just derailed it for six months or so.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> Energy makes everything run. I knew that this would eventually affect things that were very energy intensive, like metals and particularly in the agriculture industry, which also is very energy intensive. Not only do they require fertilizer, which requires a lot of gas, but getting their farms running requires a lot of diesel, kerosene, and different fuels of that nature. Energy is at the heart of everything; then it\u2019s kind of seeing how long it is going to take to hit these other markets, so that\u2019s kind of the timing issue. It\u2019s not always easy to get right, but I think that\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing right now.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1493\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1493\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: You\u2019ve brought up food a few times, it sounds like last year with the initial energy problems in the UK that had impacts on meat producers and meat packers and with Nat Gas such a big component of fertilizer production. How concerned are you with what we\u2019ll see happen in food markets next year?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1493\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1493\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> We saw a fertilizer kind of spike this summer, and I have pulled back since then, but those markets are starting to jump again because of all the production that\u2019s being taken offline in the EU. We\u2019re already experiencing some shortages in the US, and we\u2019re not even at planting season yet. So looking at those markets, I think that\u2019s going to play an even larger role in H1 of 2023 as we go into planting season. Energy input costs are going to be higher. Obviously, we\u2019ve seen energy pull way back, but still $80, $85 that\u2019s very high for the norm.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I think we\u2019ll see higher energy prices for longer. We\u2019re going to see input costs for agriculture starting to storm. That will also affect supply problems, because countries like Canada and the Netherlands want to cut back on fertilizer usage, whether or not that puts some farmers out of business, which then takes more food supply off the market. The Netherlands is the number two global exporter in the world of food, and they\u2019re looking at many farmers that could be hurt by this and go out of business. I think we barely scratch the surface. Food prices have escalated up 13% this year. Probably even higher. So, I think that\u2019s going to be higher for longer, and I think we probably haven\u2019t even started to scratch the surface of that yet.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1494\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1494\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: US had this strengthening of the dollar; this very strong dollar has been masking a lot of the impact of rising commodity prices on US consumers. For instance, look at the prices of gasoline at the pump; they\u2019re down even though things like gas prices are still up a bit, but nowhere near what the rest of the world experiences. How big a deal is it that we have this strengthening dollar at a time of rising commodity prices? How does it affect how you\u2019re thinking about how this particular commodity price surge is going to play out?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1494\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1494\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> There\u2019s often a prevailing notion that commodity prices are directly inversely correlated to the dollar, so people are looking for icommodity prices to go down f the dollar goes up. Certainly, there are cases that happen, and there are points in time that happen, but if you look over a long enough period, this is not the case for the most part, especially when looking at supply-side problems. Over the last two years, energy, grain prices, and industrial metals have been rising alongside the USD. So when we have these structural supply deficits in all of these markets with inelastic demand, other than shutting down the entire global economy as we did. We will continue to see rising commodity prices in the face of a rising dollar.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> It\u2019s going to be a problem for the US, but it will be an even bigger problem for emerging markets. I think we\u2019re going to see a lot more food protectionism and energy protectionism start coming into play, just as recently as India put a 25% export tax on their rice. Earlier this year, they even stopped exports altogether for the time being. I think we will see these kinds of actions coming up more and more globally.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1495\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1495\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: What do you equity managers or investment managers need to understand about what\u2019s happening in the commodity markets right now?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1495\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1495\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I think I have to go back to the point that pretty much everything revolves around energy. It literally runs the global economy. I think it\u2019s particularly important for anybody to watch this sector as it affects the cost of everything else. For most businesses, energy is one of the highest input costs from small to large businesses. This factors into their bottom line and affects how they conduct business. Earlier, we talked about the ripple effects of high natural gas prices affecting smelters that in turn affects manufacturing, which in turn affects global supply chains, which in turn affects all aspects of business, from transportation to food processing to utilities to consumer discretionary to healthcare, even to the tech industry. Expanding on this supply chain problem was right after the pandemic, we saw how supply chains could be interrupted and how they could affect businesses.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> And even many businesses and industries continue to operate with these disruptions today. If we take, for example, the oil industry, we\u2019re still having problems sourcing steel pipe and things of that nature. And that\u2019s not the only business that\u2019s still having problem kind of sourcing materials. So if we look at that and take that as a whole and know that all of these things affect whatever business you\u2019re looking at and investing in, then you have to consider how the commodity sector factors into how they do business. I think the energy sector might be biased, but I think the energy sector should be of particular interest to anyone investing globally in any equity market.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1496\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1496\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: What do you think policymakers need to better understand in this environment?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1496\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1496\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> We have to realize that the source of the problem, and the energy crisis spike over the last year or so, is poor policy decisions that started a decade ago and, in some cases, two decades ago, and this has all just finally come to fruition because we had the right elements in place to spark it off. It was going to happen regardless of COVID and the Ukraine invasion &#8211; all these happening is just further exacerbated problems, but as far as policymakers need to look up, they need to understand that energy transition just doesn\u2019t happen overnight and the technology is just not there yet.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> You can\u2019t base energy policy on hope. You\u2019re talking about the livelihood of billions of people, and I think their big mistake was wanting to switch off fossil fuels right away and switch to wind and solar power. But wind and solar are intermittent power sources, and the battery tech is just not there yet. We still need fossil fuels as our base load power, and if you don\u2019t want, this is where natural gas is perfect for the transition fuel because it\u2019s much cleaner than oil or coal. I\u2019ve been talking about this for years, but they continue demonizing the industry. On the flip side, we have the option of nuclear power, which is super clean, and the most energy dense, right?<\/p><p><strong>TS: <\/strong>You need a tiny amount of uranium to create enough energy, but the west has largely shied away from that. We haven\u2019t done anything in the last two decades. There haven\u2019t been a lot of upgrades; there haven\u2019t been a lot of builds in the west. We have seen some in Africa and Asia, but we haven\u2019t in the west because we had Chernobyl and Fukushima. The west got freaked out and marked it as dangerous. And then we had the environmental groups talking about the radioactive waste, and we\u2019re all going to die. I think there was just not a lot of education out there. Ever since those accidents happened, there have been fantastic strides in nuclear energy.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> It\u2019s very different now; it\u2019s not the same plant that it was 20, 30 years ago. I think that\u2019s sort of the media\u2019s and the government\u2019s fault for how they portrayed this without educating people. And now they\u2019re forced to go back to the drawing table on nuclear. We\u2019ve seen the UK wants to start eight new nuclear reactors; we see Germany deciding on and off whether to keep these last three nuclear plants. There is more interest. In the US, we just had California, for example, which wanted to shut its last nuclear plant, but now they want to keep it open for another 10 years. So we\u2019re seeing some warming up to it.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> So I think that\u2019s good as far as policymakers are looking; let\u2019s give them a little pat on the back. It is good that we see policymakers change their view on this kind of energy, and that\u2019s the developed market side. If we look at the emerging market side, I think the west needs to stop interfering. For example, last week, we had Simon Zarchary in Africa speaking about not investing in natural gas long-term. For developing markets, this is just really unrealistic. Cheap, abundant natural gas is a great transition fuel; although it\u2019s not so cheap at the moment, if they were to drill locally, it would be cheap. We have to realize that over 600 million people, 43% of Africa\u2019s population lack access to electricity.<\/p><p><strong>TS: <\/strong>Most of them are in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has a lot of resources they could tap into. Many African countries have in trying to argue against the west and say this is unfair that you\u2019re trying to put us in a position, and we\u2019re just not at the same level as a DM market. I think policymakers should continue to try to get investments for their oil and gas industry to bring them out of poverty. And the west, if they want to help them, should stay out of their way a little bit and not get so involved in energy policy.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1497\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1497\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: Investments in supply-side infrastructure, whether opening up gas and oil fields or building nuclear plants, economically make sense to invest if you plan on using it for a long time, approximately 10 to 50 years. Now we\u2019re in this worst of all possible worlds in Europe where energy is unreliable and incredibly expensive, and they have to switch on all these coal-burning plants, which is the last type of fossil fuel you\u2019d want to use from a climate perspective. How do you get policymakers on more of an investor mindset?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1497\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1497\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> Every four to eight years, you change administrations in the US. I think you should hire people with more experience than we currently have because all these energy decisions that people are making are really from people not that qualified to make those sorts of policy decisions. They are all politically motivated policies because a bunch of bureaucrats got together and decided we\u2019re going to have this climate Paris accord, but nobody is well versed enough to say how we will get here? Everybody wants clean energy and clean air, but how are we going to get there? Governments need to have a bigger conversation with those who have more experience, not just bureaucratic think tanks.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> And the scary thing is it\u2019s being so demonized, they are having a hard time finding labor in those markets; those fields are dying. If you go to college these days, nobody wants to major in the oil or mining industry because it\u2019s dirty. It\u2019s got bad connotations, so the labor pool is also dying. We need more engineers in those fields and get them together; this is not going to fix itself by itself. As you can see, it\u2019s self-destructing before our eyes. So we need a whole redress of the situation, hopefully, sooner than later.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1498\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1498\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: You have almost a quarter of a million followers on Twitter where you post a Chigrl. Why did you start posting on Twitter and what do you see as the benefits and challenges of that level of social media presence and engagement?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1498\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1498\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> Well, I had just moved to Chicago. I didn\u2019t know anybody, and I had just started in the industry at CBOT, had a grunt job, and thought it would be a good way because I had a friend that was like, you should go one. There\u2019s a lot of financial people on there, and I was like, okay, and so I kind of just went on to shy, Chigrl cause I wanted to be anonymous. I didn\u2019t have my name on there for years, and so that\u2019s how I just really started. I started talking to financial people, and my circle grew. I remember when I got like a hundred people following me, I couldn\u2019t believe a hundred people wanted to hear what I had to say.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> And it grew organically. Social media can be beneficial for beneficial for everybody. But at the same time it can be very toxic. Financial Twitter, it\u2019s a really good place where you can meet people, there\u2019s a lot of good to be found there. There\u2019s a lot of good advice. There\u2019s a lot of ton of good information. There are a lot of people that you can learn from. For instance, I specialize in commodity markets. I don\u2019t know that much about a bond market, so I can follow a bunch of bond people and learn all about bonds. I can follow a bunch of people who specializing in healthcare. I can find out about all the healthcare companies, anybody can do that. So that\u2019s where I think that it\u2019s beneficial because you can learn a lot from everybody else. You just have to sidestep the toxic people. There are always wil be those who would want to start fights and the best engagement with those people is no engagement.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> You get views from all different companies, all different kinds of traders, there\u2019s a ton of information out there just if you\u2019re new to Twitter, just wade through it, it\u2019s worth it in the end.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-1499\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"9\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-1499\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: Was there a certain event that occurred that you were discussing a lot on Twitter that  all of a sudden everyone started noticing that people are  listening to your  thoughts? Or was it more gradual over time?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-1499\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"9\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-1499\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I think it was more gradual over time. It took a long time to get to like 50,000 or something, and then it kind of just grew from there. I\u2019ve been on Twitter since like 2009. I started in the industry a little bit before then that\u2019s a lot of dedication on.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-14910\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"10\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-14910\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: Beyond this winter out over the next few years, how do you see the outlook in the commodity space?  Where are you looking for opportunities?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-14910\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"10\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-14910\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I think the sector is just starting to see the explosion of problems. The problems that have been created are not going to be fixe any time soon. I think this is going to be a strong sector for the rest of decade. It took us long to get into this mess and it\u2019s going to take us twice as long to get out of the mess. On a shorter term, I\u2019m kind of looking at agriculture in 2023, and I think metals will hit probably half of 2023 into 2024. As soon as some of this energy sector calms down a little bit, metals will be the next freak out. I think this sector\u2019s strong and there are plenty of opportunities to be had out the current situation even though the situation is not great.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-14911\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"11\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-14911\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: Why do you see metals after agriculture? What the sequence of events you\u2019re thinking is about?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-14911\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"11\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-14911\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> It\u2019s going to take at least a year for Europe to figure out its energy flow. After they do that, that\u2019s going to exacerbate the metal problem even more. Because right now their focus is on how do we get close here. How do we get LNG here. How do we get oil and gas if we embargo Russia in December. They say they need two to three years to build LNG space, but that\u2019s going to take a lot longer than they think. Anyway, their primary focus right now is on how to get energy flows to them to replace the flows that are not Russia related or that are Russia related.<\/p><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I think the metals are going to take a little bit more for that when they shift their policy back around to focusing on EVs and getting their manufacturing back up. Because right now their manufacturing shutting down. They are getting their energy house in order flow-wise. The metals going to be the next problem because they\u2019re going to have, because of the green policy goals. So that\u2019s why I think that\u2019s going to take a little bit longer. I think you\u2019re going to find huge opportunities in agriculture. I think the next surge you\u2019re going to see is in 2023 where we\u2019ll have spring and summer planting and there is not going to have enough fertilizer. All three sectors are going to play a huge role over this next decade.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-accordion-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-14912\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"12\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-14912\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon elementor-accordion-icon-right\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-plus\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-accordion-icon-opened\"><i class=\"fas fa-long-arrow-alt-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-accordion-title\" tabindex=\"0\">DG: Any near-term catalysts you\u2019re looking at that\u2019s going to tell you how bad this gets? Or whether we might skate through in the short term?<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-14912\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"12\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-14912\"><p><strong>TS:<\/strong> I\u2019m focusing on energy flows right now because I think that\u2019s the most important thing that we need to look at. Germany just came out and announce they have enough gas, at 90%, but that\u2019ll last us through winter, which I\u2019ve been saying all summer it\u2019s all about flows. So right now, we should be focusing on global energy flows no matter what. I think Russian barrels are going to stay on the market more so than anybody thinks. That\u2019s just what is going to happen because other countries are going to take advantage of that discount regardless. I would be focusing on how that energy flow space is revolving if you to use as a gauge on how quickly we can get out of this mess.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We welcome Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter, into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. Host David Greely sits down with Tracy to discuss&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1123,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,85],"tags":[25,99,100,37],"class_list":["post-1122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-episode","category-winter-is-coming","tag-commodity-markets","tag-energy-crisis","tag-energy-policy","tag-energy-transition","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter - SmarterMarkets\u2122<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/smartermarkets.media\/winter-is-coming-episode-5-tracy-shuchart\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter - SmarterMarkets\u2122\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We welcome Tracy Shuchart, Partner at Intelligence Quarterly and @chigrl on Twitter, into the SmarterMarkets\u2122 studio. 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